McCain v. Clinton ??
From Ostroy Report via Karin…The more likely scenario on Super Duper Tuesday unless Latinos shift to Obama
Is this worthy of a new thread?
Maybe not inevitable with this LA Times endorsement?
Why It’ll Be McCain v. Clinton Come Tuesday Night On Tuesday, voters in 22 states will go to the polls in what has become Super-Duper Tuesday…an historic day of key Democratic and Republican primaries and caucuses. By the time the polls close, I suspect the candidates left standing will be Arizona Sen. John McCain and NY Sen. Hillary Clinton. This will be largely due to several key social factors and political realities. To begin with, on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads in about 10 states and, overall, sizeabale leads in many of the most delegate-rich states. Additionally, she has the overwhelming support of whites and latinos; the latino vote being perhaps the most critical asset for her and the biggest liability for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, her only rival at this point (following former Senator John Edwards’ suspension this week of his campaign). And while Obama picked up South Carolina’s delegates last week, he was carried over the finish line by the state’s large constituency of black voters. But Hillary, by a 2-to-1 margin, won the state’s latinos. As the campaign now spreads out broadly across the U.S., the absence of this huge South Carolina-like black support will be pronounced, especially given Clinton’s clear majority of whites and hispanics. She also is the favorite among the poor and middle class, and those less educated…and there’s a whole lot more of them than the wealthier, educated Whites who, along with blacks, comprise Obama’s key supporters. The Obama camp also touts large support among the nation’s youth, but, unless this year is different (which it very well may be), history shows that young people just don’t show up at the polls on election day. What could slam the door shut on the hispanic vote would be for someone like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson–historically a loyal Clintonite–to come out with a Hillary endorsement sometime tomorrow or over the weekend. I believe this is very likely. In exchange, and given his credentials, he sure would make for a helluva Secretary of State. Lastly, and this should come as a shock to no one, America is still quite a racist nation. This is the biggest hurdle of all for Obama. Are voters ready for a black president? As a mostly liberal Democrat, nothing in my lifetime would make me happier than to see a black man or woman become president. And if that’s 2008, I would be ecstatic. But I’m also a realist. I just don’t think most voters, come lever-time, will vote for Obama. All we need to do, if we’re looking for a reminder of the scale of our nation’s ignorance and prejudice, is to go back to ‘04, when hatred of gays drove many to overlook their own best interests and be usued instead as political pawns by Karl Rove.
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This post strikes me as “pseudo-realistic.” It adopts a tone of realism (or is it pessimism), then cherry-picks the “hard facts” needed for its gloomy scenario.
Obama is beconing more popular by the minute. Much of Hillary’s base is composed of other “pseudo-realists who have decided she is the “most electable” candidate– even though few of them actually like her.
The LA debate worked to Obama’s advantage. He was relaxed, gracious and charming.he appeared “fully equal” to Hillary. I think Obama has grown tremendously during this campaign. If he started off seeming green and inexperienced, the ease with which he handled Clinton demonstrated that he has arrived.
The reasons for viewing him as “unelectable” are diminishing rapidly.
A remaining argument, one that diminishes those who resort to using it, is the line that American voters, in the privacy of the voting booth, will be unwilling to vote for Obama because he is black. I don’t believe that.
Let me take a risk on the eve of Super Tuesday, by predicting that Obama will (at least) tie Hillary in the races. I agree with those who say the momentum is with Obama.
But we’ll see tomorrow.
Comment by Bartman — February 4, 2008 @ 4:37 pm
It’s time to speak out about the politics of health. I am an ardent HILLARY CLINTON supporter, for many reasons. I sincerely believe that she is the most qualified candidate to lead the country – based in no small part on her remarkable record of public service, her depth of character and her unparalleled, intimate knowledge of the workings of the our government at the executive level. We have a rare opportunity to make a superb choice for President, and it must be HILLARY CLINTON.
But first a few words to claims that electing HILLARY will mean more of the “same old thing”. I, for one, would relish a return to the prosperity of the 1990’s - and urge all of you who appreciate a balanced budget, economic growth and responsible governance to speak out in favor of HILLARY CLINTON, who can bring this back to us.
Equally important to me is the issue of health care. Here’s what I like about HILLARY and her intelligent approach to the obesity crisis: she wants to quality health coverage for all Americans via a 7-step strategy for lowering spiraling costs. I know all too well that premiums have almost doubled since 2000 - up 87 percent – as I provide health insurance for my company’s employees, and my family. We need Senator Clinton’s plan to cover all Americans because it will require the reform of our often irrational, inefficient and wasteful policies. She’s been through the wars on this issue, and can get it passed.
I implore all of you who feel the same as I do to speak out, get involved and be active in your support of HILLARY CLINTON – help her get elected, and she will help all of us live well.
Comment by Jackie Keller — February 19, 2008 @ 8:34 am